Silver, in my view, is on track to trade around $400 per ounce by 2032. I know that might sound ambitious at first, but when you dig into the data, the story becomes hard to ignore. Over the past few decades, silver has been quietly building one of the most powerful setups in the entire commodity space.

The evidence is everywhere you look: decades of deep undervaluation, persistent supply deficits, shrinking global inventories, surging investor demand, and a 45-year technical breakout that's finally in motion. Each of these pieces tells part of the story, but together they paint a single, unmistakable picture of a market that's been overlooked for too long and is now primed for a historic revaluation.

In the sections ahead, I'll walk you through why the setup is so compelling, what's driving it beneath the surface, and how this next phase of silver's bull cycle could unfold.

Silver Is Still Cheap in Real Terms

Let's start with a bit of perspective. Silver's price today might look high compared to a few years ago, but once you strip out the effects of inflation, it's still astonishingly cheap. The nominal number hides how far behind silver actually is in real, inflation-adjusted terms.

Back in January 1980, silver hit a nominal peak of $48 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), that translates to roughly $199 per ounce in August 2025 dollars. Even the more recent 2011 rally, when silver reached $49.83, equates to about $72 per ounce today.

Now compare those figures to where we are today: the low $50s. To simply match its 2011 real-term value, silver would need to rise another 45%, and to reclaim its 1980 equivalent, it would have to climb nearly 300%. That gap is enormous, and it highlights how deeply undervalued the metal remains when viewed through the lens of purchasing power rather than nominal price.

This is why the idea of triple-digit silver isn't outlandish. A move above $100 wouldn't represent new, speculative territory; it would merely bring silver back in line with where it's already been in real terms. In other words, silver doesn't need a miracle rally; it just needs to catch up to the inflation that's already occurred. For a metal that underpins both modern industry and long-term wealth preservation, that's a surprisingly modest ask.

Silver Is Yet to Catch Up to 45 Years of Money Printing

As Jesse Colombo noted in his recent silver analysis, it's one thing to say silver looks cheap when adjusted for inflation, but the story gets even more compelling when you consider what's happened to money and debt. Measured against the explosion in U.S. monetary supply and federal liabilities over the past 45 years, silver isn't just undervalued; it's tremendously mispriced.

Back in 1980, when silver hit its first major peak, both M2 money supply and federal debt were tiny by today's standards. Since then, they've gone vertical: M2 has soared from about $1.6 trillion to over $22 trillion, while U.S. federal debt has rocketed from under $1 trillion to nearly $38 trillion. That's an increase of over 1,200% and 3,800% respectively. Yet silver's price has barely moved beyond its 1980 nominal price in all that time. The disconnect is staggering.

The ratios make this disparity even clearer. In 1980, the Silver-to-M2 ratio stood around 1,008. By 2011, it had collapsed to 171, and today it sits near 76. The Silver-to-U.S. Debt ratio tells an even harsher story: 1,377 in 1980, 86 in 2011, and only 37 today. Put simply, while the dollar supply has ballooned and national debt has multiplied more than fortyfold, silver hasn't even begun to reflect that monetary dilution.

This palpable disconnect shows that silver hasn't just fallen behind inflation; it's been left in the dust by the entire fiat system. The U.S. monetary base and federal liabilities have expanded to levels that would have been unimaginable a generation ago, yet silver still trades as if the dollar were backed by something real.

If silver were merely to revert to its 2011 relationship with M2 or U.S. debt, it wouldn't be trading in the $50 range; it would be somewhere north of $200 per ounce. That's the magnitude of undervaluation we're dealing with.

The takeaway is simple: the world's reserve currency has been diluted beyond recognition, debt has exploded, and silver--a traditional counterweight to fiat excess--hasn't even begun to catch up. When that reversion finally begins--and the recent breakout above $50 indicates it's starting--triple-digit silver won't require speculation or hype. Repricing alone could take it there.

Silver Is Undervalued Compared to Gold and Stocks

Now that we've seen how silver lags inflation, money supply, and debt growth, the next logical question is: how does it compare to other major assets? The short answer--whether you compare it to gold or the stock market--is that silver remains one of the most undervalued assets in the world.

Let's start with gold, silver's oldest and most reliable benchmark. The silver-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, has always been a straightforward gauge of relative value. In 1980, when silver hit its first major peak, the ratio stood at about 1:18 (or 6.8%), meaning silver was worth nearly seven percent of gold's price. During the 2011 rally, that ratio narrowed to roughly 1:31 (or 3.3%). Today, it's hovering around 1:83, or just 1.3% of gold's value. Put another way, silver is now three times cheaper relative to gold than it was in 2011 and more than five times cheaper than it was in 1980.

To put this into perspective, if silver simply returned to its 2011 relationship with gold--and gold held steady around $4,250 per ounce--silver would already be trading near $140 per ounce. A full reversion to the 1980 level would imply prices around $289 per ounce. In short, while gold has already repriced as a monetary hedge, silver, which traditionally lags before outperforming, hasn't even begun that phase yet.

The same dynamic shows up when you compare silver to US equities. After spending more than a decade losing ground, the silver-to-S&P 500 ratio has finally broken out of its downtrend, confirmed by a bullish moving-average crossover. That's a textbook sign of capital rotation: money is flowing out of overvalued paper assets and into underowned tangible ones.

The last time we saw this exact setup was in 2004, right before silver launched a 760% rally, climbing from $6 to $49 per ounce by 2011. If history rhymes, this breakout could propel silver toward $430 by 2032. That may sound ambitious, but so did $49 by 2011 when silver was trading around $6 in 2004. And as you'll find out later in the technical outlook section, that same target aligns with two other long-term projections, giving it even more weight.

To sum it up, silver isn't just cheap in nominal terms; it's cheap relative to everything else that matters. Against gold, it's historically discounted. Against equities, it's starting to outperform. Combine those two forces, and you have a powerful setup: a metal that's undervalued and entering a new era of relative strength.

The World Is Running Out of Silver

Silver's triple-digit potential isn't just about undervaluation or relative strength; it's also about scarcity. After years of comfortable surpluses, the market has flipped into a structural shortage, and that reality is now showing up everywhere you look: in falling inventories, record deliveries, and surging retail premiums across Asia.

According to Metals Focus, global silver demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years, with another large deficit of roughly 187 million ounces projected for 2025. These aren't short-term imbalances caused by temporary demand spikes. They represent a multi-year structural shortage being patched over by draining existing stockpiles rather than new mine production or recycling.

You can see the evidence in London's vault data, where holdings have dropped by roughly one-third since 2020--from over 1.16 billion ounces to just above 790 million. Industrial users, mints, and investors are all tapping into the same dwindling pool of physical metal because mine output and recycling simply can't keep up. Basically, silver's supply is shrinking even as demand remains firm.

The COMEX delivery data tells a similar story. In 2025 alone, more than 520 million ounces have been delivered year-to-date, which is a massive figure even by long-term historical standards, as Peter Schiff has pointed out. When more traders are demanding metal instead of rolling paper contracts, it signals fading confidence in synthetic supply and growing preference for the real thing. The "paper silver" system works only as long as most traders settle in cash. Once they start demanding metal at scale, tightness becomes impossible to ignore.

Outside the exchanges, the strain is spreading fast. Indian dealers are reporting near-zero availability, forcing some funds to pause new silver ETF inflows because they can't secure enough bars to back new shares. Amazon sellers are facing fulfillment delays or outright defaults, and even the Perth Mint--one of the world's most reputable bullion refiners--has had to limit sales and pause new orders to manage overwhelming demand.

But the most telling signal of all is coming from Asia's retail market. Recent listings on Chinese e-commerce platforms show silver bars priced between $108 and $129 per ounce, a 107–150% premium over the global spot price near $52. That kind of markup doesn't happen in a balanced market. When retail buyers are willing to pay double just to get immediate delivery, it's a clear sign that local inventories have thinned out, and immediacy now matters more than price.

Historically, Asian premiums have been the market's early warning system. We saw this play out with gold in 2013, when Chinese and Indian demand drained Western vaults, and again with palladium in 2018, right before its parabolic run. The same pattern seems to be unfolding in silver today. China's industrial demand is booming, its refining capacity is expanding, and retail investors are quietly stockpiling metal as a hedge against currency weakness and geopolitical uncertainty.

Overall, the world is running low on readily available silver, and China's soaring premiums are the canary warning that the shortage is real, accelerating, and likely to spread globally. Once inventories bottom out, there's only one mechanism left to balance demand and supply: price. And this is one more reason why triple-digit silver is inevitable.

Market Participants are Positioning for Higher Silver Prices

For the first time in years, the silver market is showing a clear, coordinated shift in positioning across nearly every major participant group. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data reveal that commercials, funds, and even retail investors are all positioning for higher prices. This shift is a subtle but powerful sign that sentiment has turned, and the market is preparing for the next major leg up.

Let's start with the commercials: the miners, refiners, and manufacturers who normally hedge to protect against falling prices. Their short exposure peaked in 2024 at just over 40,000 contracts but has since dropped to around 33,000. When producers reduce hedges, it's usually because they're more comfortable with current price levels and them expect to rise further. In other words, the people closest to the metal are no longer defensive; they're quietly positioning for strength.

Swap dealers tell a different, but equally revealing, story. On paper, their short positions have increased, but that's not a bearish signal. Those positions are mostly hedges against growing client demand from institutions, ETFs, and structured products. As more capital flows into silver exposure, dealers must short futures to stay balanced. In that sense, rising swap-dealer shorts point to growing institutional participation and deeper market liquidity, both of which are hallmarks of a maturing, well-supported bull market.

Meanwhile, the managed money players (think: hedge funds, CTAs, and macro funds) have turned decisively bullish. Their long positions have more than doubled since 2023, while short exposure has been cut nearly in half. These aren't day traders chasing headlines; they're sophisticated players responding to hard data: falling real yields, surging industrial demand from EVs and solar, and a global rotation toward hard assets amid de-dollarization. In other words, the smart money is positioning for a multi-year silver revaluation.

Prop desks and family offices are staying net long as well, even after taking partial profits in 2025. And on the retail side, participation is growing steadily. The tone of buying is measured and consistent, pointing to conviction-based accumulation rather than speculative frenzy. It's exactly what you'd expect in the early-to-middle stages of a sustainable bull market.

Finally, the overall structure of the market looks healthier than it has in years. Open interest has climbed more than 30% since 2023, while concentration among a few large banks has dropped sharply. The U.S. dominance that once defined this market is fading, replaced by more global participation and diversified liquidity.

Put it all together, and the message is clear: commercials are confident, funds are bullish, banks are facilitating exposure, and retail investors are quietly joining in. Silver has matured from a speculative rebound into a demand-driven bull market, and that's exactly why I believe that triple-digit silver is coming sooner than most think.

Silver's Technical Outlook Aligns With the Fundamentals

Everything we've discussed so far (i.e., silver's deep undervaluation, structural supply deficits, surging Asian premiums, and rising investor accumulation) forms the fundamental case for triple-digit silver. But what makes this setup even more convincing is that the technical picture points in the same direction. In fact, silver's long-term chart doesn't just support the idea of higher prices; it practically demands it.

Over the past four decades, silver has spent its time carving one of the largest cup-and-handle formations ever seen in the financial market. The "cup" stretches from the 1980 high to the 2011 peak, while the "handle" represents the long, grinding consolidation that followed. For years, silver repeatedly tested and failed to break through the $36–$49 resistance zone, which acted as a ceiling for nearly 45 years. Now, silver has finally broken through it. With that breakout, the handle is complete, and the next leg of the long-term pattern is officially in play.

The measured move from this formation points toward a target near $400 per ounce, and that number isn't arbitrary. It aligns perfectly with long-term trend extensions drawn from silver's previous cyclical highs in 1980 and 2011. When two independent analytical tools converge on the same target zone, the message becomes difficult to ignore.

Even more telling, silver's breakout above that 45-year ceiling happened just as its relative strength against the S&P 500 turned up. Not only is this a powerful combination that signals a genuine regime change, but it also provides a historical timeline as to when silver will trade near the $400 projections. Think about it: the last time this exact setup appeared was in 2004, when the same ratio breakout preceded a 760% rally that carried silver from roughly $6 to $49 per ounce by 2011. If history rhymes, the current breakout could follow a similar path, projecting silver toward $400 by around 2032.

This alignment between fundamentals and technicals is rare and extremely powerful. The fundamentals explain why silver is set to reprice; the chart shows how far that revaluation can go once momentum takes hold. With both macro drivers and chart structure pointing in the same direction, triple-digit silver is no longer speculation; it's a logical expectation.

What Could Slow Silver's Run to Triple Digits

I'm extremely bullish on silver's long-term outlook, but being realistic also means recognizing what could slow its climb to triple digits. The risk isn't that the thesis is wrong; it's that the timeline might be longer than expected. Let's briefly review a few factors that could pause or cool momentum along the way.

The most obvious factor to watch is supply. If global deficits begin to narrow, it could temporarily relieve pressure on inventories and slow the price advance. Keep an eye on updates from Metals Focus, as well as trends in mine output and recycling volumes. A few large mining projects coming online or a rise in secondary supply could buy the market time before tightness reasserts itself. Similarly, if London or COMEX vault stocks stop falling--or even start to rebuild--it would signal a short-term balance between available metal and demand. That wouldn't fix the structural shortage, but it might soften the immediate pressure on prices.

Futures positioning is another key checkpoint. If COT reports start showing an overcrowded long side or a spike in dealer shorts, that would signal the market is due for a healthy reset. A quick pullback in that environment wouldn't be bearish; it would just clear out excess leverage before the next leg higher.

And then there's China, which remains the best real-world barometer of physical tightness. Right now, Chinese retail premiums are more than double global spot prices, an unmistakable sign of scarcity. But if those premiums narrow toward parity and stay there for several months, it would suggest local supply has stabilized, at least temporarily.

None of these factors changes the bigger picture. Silver's long-term setup remains one of the strongest in the commodity space, supported by real-world deficits, growing investor demand, and a historic breakout on the charts. Still, markets move in waves, not straight lines. By keeping an eye on these indicators, you'll have a much better sense of how quickly silver's inevitable revaluation will unfold.

Final Thoughts

After looking at silver from every possible angle (i.e., its inflation-adjusted history, money-supply ratios, relative value to gold and equities, persistent supply deficits, falling inventories, and 45-year technical breakout), the conclusion, to me, feels unmistakable: silver remains one of the most underpriced assets on the planet.

As such, triple-digit silver isn't a wild forecast; it's a logical outcome of the forces already in motion. Whether we get there through a steady re-rating or a sudden inventory squeeze depends on how fast inventories deplete and how aggressively capital rotates back into hard assets. Either way, the destination looks the same: much higher prices over the coming years.

That said, no bull market moves in a straight line. There will be pullbacks, consolidation phases, and sentiment swings along the way. But this time, the foundation is much stronger than it was during the peaks of 1980 or 2011, anchored by real deficits, global demand, and a broader base of investors.

If you share this outlook, the next step is positioning yourself accordingly. You don't need to bet the farm, but consider gaining exposure through silver-backed ETFs like PSLV (NYSE:PSLV), SLV (NYSE:SLV), and SIVR (NYSE:SIVR), select mining stocks and mining ETFs for leverage, and, of course, physical coins or bars for tangible ownership.

Most investors who watched silver trade around $8 an ounce in 2004 still look back wishing they'd bought just a little. That moment turned out to be a generational opportunity, and history may be repeating itself. Silver is once again deeply undervalued, sitting at the edge of a major revaluation. Don't let this second chance pass you by.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.