We've Seen This Before... and It Didn't End Well

Strange events are unfolding in the global financial system. A monetary reset dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is quietly in motion, and the financial elite are already taking protective action. If history is any guide, you could lose up to 40% of your wealth in the next two years. Move your money before it's too late.

The Key to a Winning 401(k)

Jason Kephart
November 11, 2025

Retirement saving requires key decisions: when to start, how much to save, and where to invest. The investing decision has drawn more attention as government regulators work to open 401(k) plans to alternative assets such as private market investments.

Below, we compare the paths of two hypothetical retirement savers and their outcomes.

A Tale of Two Retirement Savers

Laura and JR are two 25-year-olds newly employed at the same company, in the same role.

Step 1: Deciding to Save

On her first day at work, Laura committed 10% of her $75,000 salary to her 401(k). That earned her company's 3% annual match (it matches 50% up to 6%), and 13% in total savings. She still had room in her budget for weekends filled with activities.

JR was more worried about now. Rather than putting money into a 401(k) he wouldn't touch for decades, he enjoyed his $75,000 salary. Five years later, JR began to build his nest egg. He opted for the minimum contribution rate to qualify for the company match, contributing 6% with a 3% match.

Step 2: How to Invest

Laura and JR's employer offered many investment vehicles, including target-date funds. One invested only in public stocks and bonds; the other kept a 15% allocation to private equity and private credit across the glide path.

Laura preferred the public-only target-date fund for its simplicity and transparency. JR was also drawn to the target-date options and their ease of use. However, he went with the private market option since it promised higher returns, and to make up for his late start. He figured he could quickly recover five years of missed contributions, given that he had 35 years until retirement.

From Earnings Years to Retirement

Laura and JR both rose steadily to senior management positions. Their career progression, and their salaries, stayed in tandem. By the time they were turning 65 and approaching retirement, each was earning $178,620 a year. There had been no changes to their 401(k) contribution rates or their company's matching formula. As Laura and JR prepared to retire, they reviewed their 401(k)s.

For JR, the target-date fund with private markets had paid off. Over 35 years of investing, the fund delivered an annualized return of 8.9%, compared with 8.4% for the public-only option. This left him with a balance of about $2 million. Combined with Social Security, JR felt that he could enjoy retirement without the risk of outliving his savings.

The public-only TDF underperformed compared with the private markets TDF, but Laura didn't mind. Over 40 years of investing, her 401(k) account balance grew to more than $3 million. By starting earlier and contributing more she harnessed the power of compounding returns to a much greater extent than JR had.

JR's private markets sleeve gave him a small edge, but Laura's decision to start saving earlier and save more made the real difference. Compounding did the rest, turning her steady contributions into a balance far larger than JR's.

The bottom line: It is far better to focus on how much to save and when to start saving, instead of the whims of the public and private markets.

Behind the Curtain

In illustrating the importance of saving early and saving more, we had to make several assumptions. We assumed that Laura and JR earn the same salary and stay at the same employer for their entire careers, with no breaks in employment. We assumed stocks, bonds, and private markets all delivered the long-term return expectations set by Morningstar Investment Management. It's not a given that a target-date fund with a 15% allocation to private markets would outperform a similar strategy focused solely on public stocks and bonds, especially after fees.

There is debate about whether private equity funds outperform their public counterparts. A Morningstar analysis concluded that private equity funds are best thought of as another form of active management, where a handful of funds may significantly outperform their peers, but median returns are similar (or worse) to public market funds.

Moreover, private markets present additional challenges for forecasting due to the heterogeneity in the underlying investments. The results should be viewed as more of a best-case scenario for target-date funds with private market exposure.

____

This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance

Jason Kephart, CFA, is a senior principal, multi-asset strategy ratings, for Morningstar.

Spencer Look is an associate director, retirement studies for Morningstar Investment Management LLC.

Samantha Lamas is a senior behavioral insights researcher for Morningstar.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Trump Threatens Air Traffic Controllers Amid Shutdown Chaos; Pete Buttigieg Says He 'Wouldn't Last Five Minutes' in Their Job

President Donald Trump has demanded that all air traffic controllers return to work as the nation's aviation system endured another wave of mass flight cancellations, caused by staffing shortages due to the prolonged government shutdown.

Jan 26: The Day Elon Changes Everything - Ad

Mark your calendar: January 26, 2025. That's the date I believe Elon Musk could finally unveil his Optimus robot - the same project he says will be "the biggest product ever of any kind." If Elon is right, this could be a $30 trillion tipping point...And regular investors have a rare window to move before the switch flips.

Shaquille O'Neal's $180,000 Range Rover Stolen in Suspected Hacker Heist

The custom Range Rover belonging to Shaquille O'Neal has been stolen, reportedly due to a cyber attack.

Trump Signs Law to Launch Dollar 2.0 - Ad

Trump just signed law S.1582, unleashing the biggest money shift in 100+ years. For the first time since 1913, private firms - not the Fed - can mint a "Dollar 2.0." Treasury says it could drain $6.6T from banks and pay 10X current savings rates. Early investors in minting firms could see 40X returns by 2032.

Donald Trump Jr.-Linked Drone Maker Unusual Machines Wins Major Pentagon Deal

Unusual Machines secures its largest Pentagon drone contract to date, with Trump Jr. serving as an adviser but not involved in the deal.

A United Airlines emergency landing likely caused by collision with a weather balloon

A United Airlines plane appears to have collided with a weather balloon while cruising over Utah at 36,000 feet last week, fracturing layers of its windshield and forcing an emergency landing.

[Revealed] The $100 Starlink Pre-IPO Blueprint! - Ad

Fortune reports Starlink's rumored IPO is set to be the single largest IPO in history. James Altucher has uncovered a way to get a pre-IPO stake BEFORE Starlink goes public. All it takes is just a few minutes of time and as little as $100 to get started.

2,000 mink released from Iowa farm in what trade group calls 'terrorist act'

One or more intruders broke into an Iowa mink farm and released 2,000 of the furbearing animals in what a trade group called a “terrorist act” under federal law.

The Tesla Shock Nobody Sees Coming - Ad

While headlines scream "Tesla is doomed"...Jeff Brown has uncovered a revolutionary AI breakthrough buried inside Tesla's labs. One that is helping AI escape from our computer screens and manifest itself here in the real world all while creating a 25,000% growth market explosion starting as early as January 29.

Trump's White House Ballroom Donors Include Google, Micron, Palantir and More

The $300 million cost of Trump's ballroom is being covered entirely by private donors, including several major corporations.

Monkey escape in Mississippi gives a glimpse into the secretive world of animal research

The recent escape of several research monkeys after the truck carrying them is the latest glimpse into the secretive industry of animal research and the processes that allow key details of what happened to be kept from the public.

Why Are 21 Billionaires Moving Their Money ASAP? - Ad

One of the biggest stock market events in 25 years is rapidly unfolding... The economist who predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis says it will be: "The Biggest Crash of Our Lifetime." Starting November 19 it could cut the entire tech marketing by HALF.

Ford's enormous F-150 becomes unlikely part of Japan's efforts to woo Trump

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's most iconic truck might be the tiny white transport vehicles that farmers use to lug gear on the narrow roads that link their rice fields.

Why D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock Is Getting Hammered Today

Shares of D-Wave Quantum are trading lower Wednesday afternoon, caught in a broader market downturn.

Elon's New Device Could Launch Biggest IPO of the Decade - Ad

Elon Musk's new device is being called a "game-changer"-and even the White House is using this tech. Jeff Brown says it could launch Musk's next trillion-dollar company and make early investors rich. You can claim a stake now for as little as $500.

Elon Musk Tells Joe Rogan: 'Trump Actually Is Not Perfect, but He's Not Evil'

In a Friday appearance on The Joe Rogan Podcast, Elon Musk defended President Donald Trump, stating that while Trump is "not perfect," he is also "not evil."

Taiwan Didn't Steal US Chip Jobs, It Helped Create Them, Says Tech Insider

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co stands at the heart of global chip production, powering US tech giants and fueling growth.

[Revealed] Trump's Next AI Executive Orders? - Ad

A White House insider with direct ties to Trump's inner circle just revealed what he calls "Manhattan II" - a potential $2.2 trillion AI initiative. He says this could mirror past U.S. projects that minted fortunes - with small firms soaring 5,000% to 10,000% over two decades. And now he's giving away his #1 stock pick for free before the deadline.

Belgium calls on EU partners to share risk if they want to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine

BRUSSELS (AP) — Belgium's prime minister said on Thursday that his European partners must share the risk of using billions of dollars in that are held in his country to help keep Ukraine’s economy and afloat in coming years.

Loggins demands removal of Trump's AI-generated video using ‘Danger Zone’

NEW YORK (AP) — Kenny Loggins is objecting to the use of his music in a social media post showing an artificial intelligence-generated video of dumping excrement from a fighter jet on last weekend's .

Nvidia CEO: E.I. Will Be as Common as Cars Today - Ad

E.I. isn't science fiction anymore. It's already here. And one little-known company is quietly supplying the systems behind it. This stock is still under Wall Street's radar... but not for long. You'll get the name, the ticker, and the full thesis inside.

Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Stock Is Surging Wednesday: What's Going On?

Shares of Krispy Kreme are surging Wednesday, lifted by a wave of renewed retail investor interest in meme stocks.

Union Pacific reports 7% higher profits as its CEO makes the case for Norfolk Southern merger

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Union Pacific delivered 7% growth in its third-quarter earnings Thursday as its CEO continues to make the case for the potential benefits of acquiring one of the railroad's eastern rivals.

"Tech Prophet" Who Predicted the iPhone Now Predicts... - Ad

George Gilder - who predicted the iPhone 17 years early and gave Reagan the first microchip - is making his boldest call yet. He says an American nanotech "super-convergence" could mint more millionaires than any event in recent memory. He's found 3 stocks set to benefit before November 18's bombshell.

France threatens to block Shein over sale of childlike sex dolls ahead of Paris store opening

PARIS (AP) — French authorities have warned they may block access to after it emerged that the online fast fashion giant had been selling sex dolls with a childlike appearance.

Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Now At The Fed's Mercy: Here's What That Means

Liquidity shifts from the Federal Reserve could determine whether Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reverses its downtrend or enters a 2019-style correction.

We've Seen This Before... and It Didn't End Well - Ad

Strange events are unfolding in the global financial system. A monetary reset dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is quietly in motion, and the financial elite are already taking protective action. If history is any guide, you could lose up to 40% of your wealth in the next two years. Move your money before it's too late.

Trump Administration Reportedly Exploring Taking Stakes In Quantum Computing Companies— IonQ, Rigetti And D-Wave Discussing Move

The Trump administration is reportedly in talks to take equity stakes in U.S. quantum computing firms like IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave in exchange for federal funding, as part of a broader strategy of government investment in strategic tech companies.

Samsung reports 32% rise in operating profit, predicts continued AI-related growth

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Samsung Electronics on Thursday reported a 32.5% increase in operating profit for the third quarter, driven by rebounding demand for its computer memory chips, which the company expects will continue to grow on the back of artificial intelligence.

Jan 26: The Day Elon Changes Everything - Ad

Mark your calendar: January 26, 2025. That's the date I believe Elon Musk could finally unveil his Optimus robot - the same project he says will be "the biggest product ever of any kind." If Elon is right, this could be a $30 trillion tipping point...And regular investors have a rare window to move before the switch flips.

European Union agrees on new sanctions against Russia targeting its shadow oil fleet and LNG imports

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union has agreed on a new raft of sanctions against Russia targeting its shadow fleet of oil tankers and banning its imports of liquefied natural gas, the Danish EU presidency announced Thursday.

Tether Just Did What Bitcoin Never Could — Become The World's Shadow Central Bank

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) wanted to upend the financial system; Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) quietly built one of its own. With more than $135 billion parked in U.S.

Trump Signs Law to Launch Dollar 2.0 - Ad

Trump just signed law S.1582, unleashing the biggest money shift in 100+ years. For the first time since 1913, private firms - not the Fed - can mint a "Dollar 2.0." Treasury says it could drain $6.6T from banks and pay 10X current savings rates. Early investors in minting firms could see 40X returns by 2032.

Mining giant Anglo American faces class action appeal over alleged lead poisoning in Zambia

CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — An appeal hearing opened Monday in South Africa on whether a subsidiary of British-based mining company was responsible for lead poisoning over decades that affected around 140,000 people in .

Dogecoin Stuck At $0.20: Why Is It Not Moving?

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is clinging to the $0.20 level, with analysts pointing to upcoming macro events as potential catalysts for a breakout.

[Revealed] The $100 Starlink Pre-IPO Blueprint! - Ad

Fortune reports Starlink's rumored IPO is set to be the single largest IPO in history. James Altucher has uncovered a way to get a pre-IPO stake BEFORE Starlink goes public. All it takes is just a few minutes of time and as little as $100 to get started.

Fintech company Fiserv slashes guidance, shuffles leadership after big earnings miss

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fiserv shares careened to their lowest level in more than five years Wednesday after the fintech payment company badly missed Wall Street's profit targets, lowered its forecast and announced a shake-up in leadership.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright priceactionea.net
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service