Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) 24% slide over the past month has traders looking to macro catalysts for direction, but 10x Research says the market may be looking at the wrong signals.

What Happened: Bitcoin's muted reaction to surging rate-cut expectations stems from a far more complex macro backdrop.

Traders are laser-focused on the Fed's December cut odds, now at 84%, but 10x argues the tone of the announcement, not the cut itself, will determine how risk assets move.

A third consecutive cut delivered without dovish forward guidance could disappoint markets.

A rare signal from the U.S. dollar has also flashed, one that's appeared only five times in Bitcoin's history. Previous occurrences preceded market stress, not bull runs.

Meanwhile, optimism around a potential $600+ billion liquidity boost from the Treasury may be misplaced. The last time this happened, Bitcoin dropped first and only rallied much later, suggesting lagging rather than immediate impact.

In short, macro conditions are far less bullish than the headline narratives imply, and Bitcoin's flat reaction reflects that disconnect.

Also Read: Bitcoin To $90,000 Soon? Possible, But You Won’t Like What May Happen Next

Why It Matters: 10x Research warns that Thanksgiving is not an automatic bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. While Q4 is historically BTC's best-performing quarter, every major year-end rally was driven by real catalysts, not holiday seasonality.

Between Thanksgiving and Christmas, Bitcoin's performance has been highly inconsistent, unlike U.S. equities, which typically rise steadily during this period.

In 2025, the firm sees a lack of strong catalysts, unlike in 2022 and 2023 when clear drivers were in place early.

Sentiment only started improving in mid-October 2024, reinforcing the idea that holiday optimism alone won't push Bitcoin higher.

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