StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:STUB) shares slipped Tuesday after fresh U.K. scrutiny of the ticket-resale market fueled worries over tougher global regulation, raising the risk of a meaningful hit to the company’s 2026 growth outlook.
The Financial Times recently reported that the U.K. may unveil new legislation on Wednesday that would ban selling live event tickets above face value.
Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post highlights that the proposal would target bots by making it illegal for merchants to resell more tickets than they were originally entitled to buy on the primary market.
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Meanwhile, Post estimated international gross merchandise sales (GMS) represent about 13% of his total StubHub GMS forecast. He said U.K. activity could account for roughly 20% to 25% of that international mix.
If a typical 33% markup disappears, Post sees a $100 million to $130 million 2026 GMS headwind.
He added that fewer tickets might reach secondary markets if more inventory goes directly to consumers, not brokers.
Analyst’s Take
The analyst estimates, before any fee-cap effects, U.K. rules could shave about two points from StubHub’s 2026 GMS growth.
Post said potential U.S. regulation poses a bigger risk for StubHub than upcoming U.K. changes.
He noted the Federal Trade Commission was asked in March to recommend protections for live entertainment consumers. That report, delayed by the shutdown, could still arrive this year now that government operations have resumed.
Post said the FTC has recently taken a tougher stance on consumer-friendly pricing and broker-limiting enforcement.
The analyst warned StubHub could face new limits on secondary ticketing if the agency targets resale platforms more directly.
However, he stressed any follow-through by Congress or the White House on recommendations remains highly uncertain.
Post views StubHub as the resale market leader with long-term upside from direct issuance and high-margin advertising.
The analyst said the stock already reflects slower 2026 and 2027 growth, even with those opportunities ahead. Still, he expects worries about 2026 GMS acceleration to linger after Street models were revised lower post-earnings.
He therefore maintained a neutral rating, with a price forecast of $19, citing ongoing regulatory and growth uncertainties around the 2026 outlook.
Price Action: STUB shares were trading lower by 3.12% to $12.42 at last check Tuesday.
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