B Of A Securities analyst Justin Post expressed views on Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) ahead of its third-quarter earnings results on November 4.
Industry Data
Bank of America card data suggests a three ppt acceleration in U.S. Online Transit spend growth year-over-year in the third quarter, versus Street expectations for stable ex-FX mobility growth.
Also, BofA data showed Online restaurant sales (Delivery) accelerated 1ppt, short of the Street’s 2ppt acceleration forecast.
The analyst projects delivery’s growth to be led by the Trendyol Go acquisition (adding 1ppt) and U.S. e-commerce strength.
Q3 Estimates
The analyst anticipates slight upside to Uber's third-quarter bookings and revenue estimates at $49.0 billion (vs. consensus of $48.9 billion) and $13.3 billion (vs. consensus of $13.3 billion), respectively, on strong mobility data.
The new bookings forecast sits at the high end of Uber's guidance, reflecting 19% year-over-year growth (ex-FX), accelerating 1ppt from the second quarter.
Also Read: DoorDash Can Outpace Uber On Free-Cash-Flow Growth: Analyst
Post’s EBITDA estimate $2.25 billion is just below consensus at $2.27 billion, reflecting ongoing investments, though a small beat remains possible.
The analyst writes that the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) outlook is a key driver.
Post expects the company to give details about positive year-to-date traction, three city launches scheduled for the fourth quarter, and the 2026 launch pipeline.
Q4 Forecast
Post estimates Uber's fourth-quarter bookings of $51.75 billion-$53.25 billion (19% year-over-year growth at the midpoint) and EBITDA of $2.40 billion-$2.50 billion.
These ranges align closely with the Street’s consensus of $52.33 billion in bookings and $2.48 billion in EBITDA.
The analyst maintains a Buy rating with a price forecast of $115.
Price Action: UBER shares are up 1.70% at $95.67 at the last check on Monday.
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