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Oracle's Q3 Falls Short, But AI Demand Keep Long-Term Outlook Strong Say Analysts

Priya Nigam
March 11, 2025

Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) shares are down on Tuesday, after the company reported downbeat fiscal third-quarter results.

The results came in amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Cantor Fitzgerald On Oracle

Analyst Thomas Blakey maintained an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $214 to $175.

Oracle reported its fiscal third-quarter revenues slightly short of expectations, while adjusted earnings were in-line and free cash slowed significantly below estimates, Blakey said in a note. The revenue-line miss was "driven by SaaS, with OCI essentially in-line," he added.

The company's bookings in the quarter were substantially better than expected and were driven by "a handful of large deals and zero Stargate," the analyst stated. "Stronger bookings lead to higher F26/F27 top-line guidance as Oracle is accelerating its OCI business benefiting from AI," he further wrote.

BMO Capital Markets On Oracle

Analyst Keith Bachman reiterated a Market Perform rating, while cutting the price target from $205 to $175.

Oracle reported revenue misses "in many areas," including cloud revenues, Bachman said. While AI demand continues to outweigh supply, they should be in "better balance" from the first quarter of fiscal 2026, he added.

Oracle's total RPOs (remaining performance obligation) in constant currency terms grew by 63% year-on-year in the fiscal third quarter to $130 billion, accelerating from 50% in the previous quarter, the analyst stated. This RPO does not include any benefit from Stargate, with the first large contract possibly "coming soon," he further wrote.

Stifel On Oracle

Analyst Brad Reback reaffirmed a Hold rating while trimming the price target from $175 to $150.

Oracle reported revenue growth of 8%, missing its guidance range of 9%-11%, Reback said. Its RPOs grew driven by demand for Cloud Services, he added. Importantly, management highlighted that RPO growth did not include any contribution

Despite the revenue miss, management guided to around 15% revenue growth in fiscal 2026, due to strong RPOs, the analyst stated.

"We believe continued solid revenue growth is sustainable as AI infrastructure bookings strength converts into training revenue and hyperscaler database partnerships scale medium-term," he further wrote.

Goldman Sachs On Oracle

Analyst Kash Rangan maintained a Neutral rating while reducing the price target from $185 to $165.

While Oracle's revenues missed consensus by 1.8%, gross profit came in 2% lower and free cash flows missed expectations by 96%, Rangan said. The revenue miss was partly due to "near-term supply constraints (for AI training infrastructure) which capped the growth trajectory of the IaaS business," he added.

Management guided revenue growth of 15% for fiscal 2026 and 20% for fiscal 2027, higher than consensus of 12.5% and 14%, respectively, the analyst stated. Another positive was expectations for new bookings from the Stargate JV "in coming months," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Piper Sandler On Oracle

Analyst Brent Bracelin reiterated an Overweight rating while cutting the price target from $210 to $190.

Oracle reported a record increase in RPO backlog, up $33 billion sequentially and more than 60% year-on-year, Bracelin said. This suggests "no signs of slowing demand for AI infrastructure," he added.

With demand outweighing supply, the company increased its capital expenditure plan for the year to $16 billion, from $14 billion previously, the analyst stated. "Stargate has promising potential to further elevate RPO exiting F2025," he further wrote.

Citizens On Oracle

Analyst Patrick Walravens reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating and price target of $205.

Oracle reported its non-GAAP earnings at $1.47 per share, missing consensus of $1.49 per share, and operating margins of 43.8%, below expectations of 43.4%, Walravens said. Due to this, revenues of $14.13 billion missed consensus of $14.39 billion, he added.

Despite these, the company posted "its strongest bookings quarter ever," the analyst wrote. RPOs rose to $130 billion, up around $33 billion in absolute dollars compared to the previous record of $18 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of the previous year, he further stated.

KeyBanc Capital Markets On Oracle

Analyst Jackson Ader maintained an Overweight rating and price target of $200.

A few months back, Oracle had indicated that Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) would become an RPO contributor in the fiscal third quarter, Ader said. Since then, the company has "proceeded to find more really solid deals throughout the quarter," he added.

Although volatility could grow, management expressed confidence in the company's backlog continuing to build, the analyst stated. "Despite another essentially in-line IaaS period, management reiterated confidence in OCI growth accelerating for the fiscal year while setting the stage for even more acceleration in FY26," he further wrote.

DA Davidson On Oracle

Analyst Gil Luria reiterated a Neutral rating and price target of $150.

Oracle reported mixed quarterly results, with slowing revenue growth excluding OCI, Luria said. Despite the miss, management remained positive about next year and guided to 15% revenue growth "due to the doubling of data center capacity, along with Stargate contracts beginning to come into the fold," he added.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) remains the driver of acceleration in the company's growth to high-single-digit levels, the analyst stated. "Management noted that they’re seeing strong backlog and growth of their remaining performance obligations, calling out significant customers of theirs including OpenAI, xAI, and Meta," he further wrote.

ORCL Price Action: Shares of Oracle had declined by 3.37% to $143.92 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

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